India Pak Ceasefire that shortlived on 10th May 2025

It's indeed a red face and egg on his face for POTUS Donald Trump today, 10th May 2025 late hours on IST timezone. Donald Trump apparently claimed a middlepath and have credited himself for a ceasefire or stoppage of hostilities between India and Pakistan, under the circumstances of Operation Sindoor that India initiated against its traditional arch rival Pakistan, post the April 22, 2025 episode in Pehalgam (Indian-side of Jammu Kashmir) where 26 innocent civilians had been killed by terrorists from across the border. While India went ahead with its retaliatory measures since 7th May 2025 with Operation Sindoor, as it has gained momentum of 'showing an upper hand' in all 3 modes of an otherwise war like scenario - gaining supremacy in Air, Sea and Military route - here comes an unsolicited mediation from POTUS where India had to unwillingly to accept a stoppage (not necessarily to be known as a ceasefire, as there was no war taking place so question of ceasefire doesn't arise though. It's multi-pronged strategy, Pak is just in the front, backend, so many stakeholders everyone is vying their part vehemently with certain vengeance. பிரச்சினை என்னன்னா கவித்துவமாகவோ பூடகமாகவோ சொன்னால் நாட்டில் பலருக்கும் புரிவதில்லை, பிடிப்பதுமில்லை. புரிந்தால்தானே பிடிக்க? நேரடியாச் சொன்னால் 'லிங்க் ப்ளீஜ், சுப்ரீம் கோர்ட் தலைமை நீதிபதியோட அத்தாட்சி இருக்கா? ஐ. நா. பொதுச் செயலாளர் சர்ட்டிஃபிகேட் இருக்கா?ன்னு 'கேட்'டை சேட்டை செய்யும் ஃப்ளின்ட்டைன் சம்முவம் இது. பூடகமாச் சொன்னாலும் புரியாது, புரியும்படியாச் சொல்லுய்யாங்குது. தெளிவாச் சொன்னா என்னய்யா கொழப்பறேங்குது. கொழப்பமா வழவழா கொழகொழன்னு சொன்னால் ' நீ என்ன பெரிய அப்பாட்டக்கரா?'ங்குது. மொத்தத்தில் சில பல உண்மைகள் சொல்லப்படுவதேயில்லை. 62 வருஷம் முன்பு கொல்லப்பட்ட ஜான் எஃப்.கென்னடியின் கொலைப் பின்னணியையே ஓப்பனாக டீக்ளாசிஃபைடு விவரமா சொல்ல ஒரு டொனால்ட் ட்ரம்ப் வரவேண்டி இருக்கு!! சுப்ரீம் கோர்ட் நீதிபதி சொன்னாலுமே ' நீதிபதி யார்ட்ட எவ்ளோ பொட்டி வாங்கினாரு?ன்னும் கேட்போமே? ********************************************* A quick summary of turn around of events, as nicely summarized by learned scholar and analyst Shri Kannan Ramaswamy. Read on!! Bharat Pakistan Cessation of hostile actions Let us first see the basic issue of starting this skirmish and the aftermath from each country's angle to understand it better Pakistan Pakistan has always been a vassal state of Deep State and of late of China too ( who are together on one side here against Bharat) Pakistan army and ISI are slave army for both of them. So Asim Munir ordered Operation Pahalgam to provoke Bharat into invading Pakistan and start a war to serve the agenda of his masters Obama & Xi . The reactions on the ground by Bharat was very different from what was anticipated by his masters Bharat restricted itself to attack only the terrorists training camps and the HQs of LeT and HM, JeM etc. So Pakistan was forced to escalate the skirmish to the next level of trying to attack the bharatiya civilians localities and hindu / sikh / christian religious places Then Bharat gave a fitting but multiple levels reply by attacking the Air Defence equipments using aircrafts, drones, S2S and A2S short range missiles , but carefully avoiding the civilians. Then Pakistan tried to attack the military bases of Bharat and also Golden temple of Amritsar, Vaishnodevi, Sharada, Shambu shrines and the capital Delhi. Bharat retaliated and took out many airbases that house the important missiles and aircrafts All these rattled the Sheriff govt Nawaz Sheriff pleaded Trump Admin to stop Bharat and save Pakistan. Trump dangled IMF tranche to get Sheriff govt agree to immediately stop all hostile Pak activities. Pak DGMO called Bharat DGMO and offered unconditional stoppage of all hostile activities. Bharat govt announced that any act of terror, cross border firing will be considered as an act of war Trump admin called Bharat and Bharat told that Pakistan DGMO called and was ready to stop all hostile activies and Bharat had agreed to stop till the next DGMO ( virtual) meeting on 12 th May at 12 pm. Trump immediately announced thst it was enabled by sleepless work of USA admin. Jaishankar immediately clarified and made it clear thst no hostile or terror activity will be tolerated during the stoppage Asim Munir was pissed off by all these as his bosses were questioning him how he can stop the hostile activities without their suggestion or approval So Asim Munir ordered cross border shelling and drone attacks Bharat has declared that it will retaliate with multiple times of intensity. Deep State is happy that it has thrown egg on Trumps face and dragged Bharat back into a war like situation. To be continued #KannanRamasamy ***************************************************************8 China's angle China can not afford to directly attack Bharat since Bharat remains its only major market after USA and EU markets are being sanctioned or with increased tariffs So it is using Pakistan as its proxy to attack Bharat. China wants Bharat to bleed economically and not becoming its competitor in future China also wants to test the military preparedness of Bharat China is also analysing the capabilities of various defence and offence equipments being used by Bharat But unfortunately for China, most of the chinese equipments failed or not upto the high quality level needed during real battles China then forced Pakistan to trigger its sleeper jihadi cells within Bharat and take hostile actions against Bharat. China also wants to drive a wedge between Bharat and USA relation. So China has been forcing Pakistan to send in terrorists and keep the fire of terror burning . Will Bharat strike back at China with any kinetic action ? I dont expect so. Bharat will take all possible actions to strike China economically with the help of other countries like USA Let's wait and see how far China can engage Pakistan #KannanRamasamy *********************************************** USA angle Here we need to first accept that the Deep State and USA govt have lots of common overlapping grey areas in geo political and geo economical issues. Biden admin was a puppet in the hands of Deep State / its political head Obama and it was Obama and Hillary who were actually running the govt from 2021-24. But Trump' s win brought in few major differences between Trump admin and Deep State Trump like Modi wants to concentrate more on development than wars in sharp contrast to DS agenda Trump is also trying to restrict the powers of Deep State Octopus. He cannot do that alone as DS is too powerful So he is trying to take in nationalists like himself - Modi, Putin etc to his side to fight DS. But CIA and DS stooges inside USA govt esp Foreign Affairs dept are working independently which clashes with Trumps agenda DS wants internatiobal and civil wars everywhere across the globe as they can sell more arms and give more loans and funds to make other countries to comply with their NWO doctrine DS & CIA did regine change in Pakistan and Bangladesh and has been trying to do the same in Bharat too. It failed in Bharat So now they want to spite and weaken the Modi govt by dragging it into a war with Pakistan and China and Bangladesh They also do not want an economically powerful Bharat and they align with China on this Trump admin can not do much without DS funds and their total control on international arms , weapons mfg and trade. So Trump has been playing Give & Take policy with DS. Whether Trump will stand with Bharat to fight China ( DS is a major partner with Chinese elites) or will give up Bharat in the bargain - we need to wait and see #KannanRamasamy **************************************************** Bharat's Angle Contrary to western narratives, Bharat did not start this skirmish Pakistan used its SPG commandoes as terrorists to enact Pahalgam massacre to provoke Bharat. Bharat retaliated with pin point strikes on terrorists training centres in PoK and Pakistan. Pak escalted with artillery shelling on civilians, other religious places Bharat retaliated with ten times the volume. Many Pakistan border posts abd bunkers were turned into dust. Then Pakistan attacked with drones and missiles on civilians , religious places of Sikhs, christisans and hindus and Bharats mitary bases Bharat retaliated with destroying their Air Defence systems, important airbases and military bases. Nawaz Sheriff tlran to USA and begged. Please refer the Pakistan's angle post for details. Bharat has been very cautious with Pakistan and its wily cunning proposals. Bharat agreed only to stop the hostile acts till 12 th DGMO meeting provided that theter will be no terror acts or cross border firing which will be considered as acts of war inviting heavy retributions from Bharat side But Pakistan immediately violated the agreement under pressure from China a d Deep State Let's see how Bharat retaliates to this latest evil act of Pakistan #KannanRamasamy ******************************************************* On the contrary, here is a different perspective on the entire Saga, a report (extract) from an article from The Telegraph (courtesy via a common friend though!!) STARTS At 4:00 a.m., something extraordinary happened—not on the battlefield, but in the diplomatic shadows. China’s ambassador to Pakistan reportedly made an urgent call to Rawalpindi. Within hours, a long-prepared contingency went live. What followed wasn’t just an air skirmish—it was a revelation that shattered the myth of India’s air dominance. The Indian Air Force had been assembling for days—nearly 180 aircraft concentrated on the western front. The goal was clear: repeat Balakot, break Pakistani defenses, and restore the image of strategic supremacy. But the skies were no longer the same. Why They Stayed 300 km Away The Indian Air Force never crossed the threshold. They knew what waited for them beyond it: Chinese J-10C fighters, sleek and silent PL-15 missiles, Mach 5 hunters with over 300 km range Erieye radars, linking every shooter into a single deadly nervous system What India saw was not just Pakistani pilots—it was China’s entire air warfare doctrine stretching from Skardu to Pasni. And the Rafales? They never saw it coming. One Rafale—valued at over $250 million—was reportedly shot down mid-air. Another barely made it back. The Spectra EW system, designed to protect it, was overwhelmed. The PL-15 didn’t come with radar—it came with AI-guided silence. This wasn’t a dogfight. It was an ambush. The Pakistani Air Force, aided by Chinese targeting satellites and AWACS, executed a sensor-fusion kill. The Rafales never got a lock, never even saw their adversary. When the missiles hit, it was already over. And India knew: if one Rafale can fall, so can five. That’s why the fleet was grounded. That’s why they stay 300 km away from the border. Not because they lack courage—but because they now lack certainty. Strategic Embarrassment The implications are enormous. India’s prestige weapon, the Rafale, fell to a Chinese missile fired by a Pakistani jet. That’s not just a tactical failure—it’s a geopolitical message. Even Bloomberg wrote it: this is a live demonstration of Chinese-Pakistani integrated warfare. Western analysts are stunned. French defense contracts are rattled. China, meanwhile, is watching quietly… and smiling. The Game Has Changed This isn’t 2019. This isn’t Balakot. India now knows that any venture into Pakistani airspace invites a death trap orchestrated by J-10Cs, PL-15s, and Pakistani resolve. So they stay back. Grounded by fear. Blinded by radar. And humiliated by silence. “The Indian pilot didn’t fail from lack of skill. He failed inside a battlefield he couldn’t see— built by satellites, linked by sensors, and executed by machines.” In May 2025, the game changed. India’s long-nurtured dream of aerial supremacy—anchored in the purchase of 36 Rafale jets, backed by the mythical Spectra EW suite and decades of French engineering—came crashing down over Kashmir. It wasn’t a dogfight. It wasn’t even a fair fight. It was a doctrinal collapse, witnessed in real time by every military strategist across the globe. The #Rafale was supposed to be untouchable. Its technology, unmatched. Its pilots, elite. But on that fateful day, it flew into a kill box it never saw. And never escaped. The Lethal Kill Chain China quietly stepped in—not in the way most Western analysts imagined. There were no J-20s or war declarations. There was a box. A network. A silent chain of observation and execution: Saab Erieye AWACS patrolling silently J-10C fighters flying in passive mode PL-15E missiles—the export PL-15E, the domestic variant with over 300 km reach and Mach 5 speed—locked in and fired The Rafale didn’t even know it was targeted until the missile was 50 km away. At that speed, the Indian pilot had 9 seconds. Not enough to react. Not enough to survive. Why the IAF Is Grounded You don’t see the Indian Air Force over Kashmir anymore. Why? Because every time a fighter lifts off, Pakistani radars pick it up. Because the Erieye sees what Indian radars can’t. Because the PL-15 launches from outside Rafale’s threat envelope. Because the Rafale, once India’s silver bullet, has been turned into a $250 million sitting duck. The IAF now flies 300 km behind its own borders. Balakot 2.0? It will not happen. Not in this sky. A Doctrinal Humbling The world is watching the fallout. Dassault Aviation’s share price remains stagnant. Chinese defense stocks—AVIC, ALD Chengdu—are surging. Because the battlefield was not decided in a dogfight. It was decided by C4ISR supremacy—Command, Control, Communication, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance. Pakistan did not outgun India. It out-networked it. And India, stunned, grounded its birds. India’s Pain, Pakistan’s Message India invested in platforms. Pakistan invested in kill chains. Modi’s doctrine was: buy dominance. Reality proved: you must build dominance. No Spectra system can counter a missile it never detects. No EW suite can spoof a missile fed by satellite data. No fighter jet can outrun the death it doesn’t see coming. The sky has changed. This is not the end of air combat. It is the beginning of silent, invisible, unanswerable air dominance. -The Telegraph. *****************************************88 Quick Crux to conclude for the morning of 11th May 2025 at 8.22am SGT by this blogger, the undersigned. என்ன நடக்குதுன்னு சாமானியன் புரிஞ்சுக்கவே இயலாத அளவுக்கு ஒரு மௌன யுத்தம் தன்னாலே நடக்கிறது, சைலண்ட் வார் , யார் பின்னே யார் இருக்கா, யாருக்கு இந்தச் சண்டையால் இலாபம், யாருக்கு இந்தச் சண்டையின் போலியான+ தற்காலிக நிறுத்தத்தை அறிவித்தது கொஞ்சம் ஆஸ்வாசிக்க - மூச்சு விட்டு ஸ்வல்பமே பின் வாங்கி - புலிப் பாய்ச்சல் பாயப்போவது யார், மரண அடி களத்தில் யாருக்கு? பொருளாதார, நிதிச் சந்தை, அடிப்படையில் யார் ஆகப்பெரிய அடி வாங்கப்போறாங்க, நிறைய இருக்கு இதுல. சில நீள் அனாலிசிஸ் நம் பார்வையில் நம்ம பக்க மேட்டர் ஒண்ணு, எதிர்த் தரப்பில் அவங்க தரப்பில் என்ன மேட்டர் இதை பட்சபாதமில்லாமல் யார் சொல்றா என்பதை வெச்சுப் பார்க்காமல் சங்கதி என்ன, அதன் வீர்யம் என்ன என்பதை தெரிந்து கொள்ளவும் ஜீரணிக்கவும் நாம் தயாரா? Do we have the capacity to digest what's indeed happening on and off the ground? *********************************